College Football Picks Week 6 (10/10)
Welcome back, everyone! Week 5 saw us go just 2-3, which brought our season record to a still very respectable 10-5-1.
Before I get into this week's picks, a bit of housekeeping. It's time for a bit of monetization. DON'T RUN AWAY! It's not as bad as it sounds, I swear. I've teamed with eZcZ Stat Network to bring you a betting product. That means that you won't pay just to get random bets sent to you through email or text, but instead, you're going to get models that analytically explain why you should back a certain side. My picks won't always agree with the model, but if that's the case, you will know why. How? By having access to a video where I discuss my picks and a member of eZcZ discusses how the model sees the game unfolding. This is in addition to my write-ups for each one of my picks that will be available to you after purchase.
I get that anything behind a paywall sucks, and that is why I am doing everything I can to make this worth your while. I don't want to be just any other person handing out bets.
Last week, we did a trial run on two bets that both I and the model thought were locks. How did we do? We went 2-0 with NC State +14 and the Ravens -13.
If this sounds like something that would interest you, check out this link to learn more about how to sign up, and what options exist.
If this doesn't sound enticing, don't worry. I'm not abandoning you. While my best bets will be reserved for those who pay, I will still be sure to cover at least one college football game each week. And for the NFL, I will only be making my top 5 picks purchasable. If you've been following along since the beginning, you'll know that I do 13 picks per week in the NFL. That means eight of my picks will still be free, while the top five will be available to those who click the link above.
In addition, I will be doing recaps of all the picks and how they played out on this site. That means that there will still be content, and you will be able to judge for yourself if it's worth betting on me.
Again, I want this to be as fair as possible, and I don't want the audience that I have built to feel as though I'm leaving you out to dry. I also want to be transparent. No matter what some people will lead you to believe, there are no 60% bettors unless they're only picking huge moneyline favorites. And for every $1000 parlay that hits, there are 100 that didn't. A lot of people who do something similar to what I'm doing aren't transparent. I never want you to feel that's the case with me.
That being said, let's get into my free college football pick of the week.
IT'S GREAT TO BE A MIAMI HURRICANE
If you went to The U, you can perfectly hear the pacing of those words in your mind. It was one of our most popular chants at football games. While being a Miami Hurricane was, and is great, the football team and all they had to offer for many years were far from it. During my years in Miami, the only thing great about the football games was that they served alcohol inside the stadium.
But this year feels different. D'Eriq King is exactly what the doctor ordered. Miami just had an extra week to celebrate their epic beatdown of the Florida State Seminoles, and more importantly, get ready for the Clemson Tigers. I am not a delusional Canes' fan. Anyone who knows me knows that. I don't give the Canes much of a chance to win this game, but I think Vegas is a little concerned right now. This line opened at some books at Miami +15, and it makes logical sense that it has dropped all the way to +14 for the moment. The key number is enticing to a lot of people, and even if the Noles stink this year, it's impossible to ignore what the Canes were able to do to them.
Yet, some may argue this line is actually more disrespectful to Clemson than it is to the Hurricanes. Clemson has the best player in college football in Trevor Lawrence and is already watering at the mouth for a revenge game against Alabama in the National Championship. After this matchup, the only other real test for Clemson will be when they take on Notre Dame, and Clemson would likely have to lose to both the Canes and Irish in order to miss the ACC Championship game.
So what does it all mean? It means, this is Miami's Super Bowl, and it is the most excited this school has been since they faked their way into the Top 4 briefly in 2017. But this team isn't faking. Their offense has a serious rhythm under Rhett Lashlee, and for the first time in a long time, they aren't lucking their way into the end zone and the win column.
A lot of you may think this means I'm going with the over. D'Eriq King vs Trevor Lawrence. An average secondary for Miami which should give up a lot of points. But to me, 64 is just way too high. King has been phenomenal, but Clemson has a way of ramping up the energy on both sides of the ball when games really matter. Therefore, I'll expect a lower scoring game than many might expect, but I won't bet it.
Instead, my play is on the Canes at +14. I would not take this any lower than that, but the start of the 2020 college football season has been truly bizarre, and I'm expecting a close game from start to finish. Clemson will probably get the win, but the Canes have an offense that can do more than enough to keep up as two-touchdown dogs. Anything +14 or higher, take the Canes.
BET: Miami Hurricanes +14
That's my free pick for the week. If you're confused about anything moving forward, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.