The Phive - College Football Week 3 (9/19) Picks
I had started off this blog doing every sport there was. I covered the MLS Is Back Tournament, the NBA, NHL, MLB, hell, I even threw in some politics and the Kentucky Derby. But let's be real. I've gone ice cole when it comes to the NBA. My picks are useless. I had it early, but with every game close, I've lost it. The NHL is down to the Stanley Cup Final, and I love the Lightning to get the job done. But that's all you're getting from me. My MLB record is phenomenal, but BettingPros now has me doing daily articles for them Wednesday-Friday. I won't be back with MLB picks until the postseason at the earliest.
Consider this a football blog now. You'll thank me for it.
I'm going to call this Week 3, even though some are calling it Week 2, and some aren't calling it anything at all. When I last gave college football picks, it looked like we were only going to have a skeleton of a season. The schedule is still a skeleton of its former self, but it's adding some meat to its bones. By Halloween, every single college football conference will be playing football. Some will call it science. Others will call it politics. I'll call it college football is back, so who gives damn.
And for those who are following a lot of the actual media folks, do yourself a favor and ignore all the posts and headlines about how many games have been postponed or canceled because of COVID. These are the same people who did the exact same thing when the MLB had to cancel games early on. And guess what? The MLB is 10 days away from starting the playoffs. Their season will end with nearly every single team playing 60 games, and the college football season will also end with most teams playing their full schedules, and a national champion being crowned. Just enjoy it. Enjoying things is good. Some people have forgotten that.
Record to this point: NCAAF 3-2 (0-0)
My 5 best bets of the week
I am a Miami alum, which in most cases would mean I'm a homer. If you know me, which I assume none of you do, you'll know that I am the exact opposite of a homer. The Canes have sucked every single year since I stepped foot on campus in Coral Gables. Every single one of our quarterbacks has been bad in one way or another. But D'Eriq King is different. He was far from perfect in the first game against UAB, but I have seriously never seen Miami play with the tempo they had in that game, and do it successfully. I'm not saying we're winning the National Championship, I'm just saying that this offense is different.
What about Louisville? Malik Cunningham is a solid starter, but I'm not incredibly impressed with this team. A lot of people are saying that Miami only looked good because they played UAB. Well, since when is Western Kentucky a powerhouse in the sport? And don't give me this nonsense of they're good for their conference. So is Southern. (I love Southern.) The Cardinals are favored, likely because they are the home team, but I like the Canes in this one because of their offensive talent.
BET: Miami +2.5
But I'm not done with this game. While I've been praising the Canes' offense, the secondary is a bit of a question mark right now. Cunningham will have plenty of time for explosive plays in this game, and I like this to be a good old fashioned shootout that ends somewhere around 35-31 or 42-38.
BET: L'VILLE/MIAMI over 64.5
Next, I'm going to one of the least exciting games of the week. Clemson is taking on The Citadel and finds themselves 46.5-point favorites. What's interesting is that the game total is set at 57.5. That means that Vegas is predicting Clemson to win about 52-6. I'll take those odds. Clemson tends to not play very much in the second half of blowouts. I don't expect Trevor Lawrence to touch the field after halftime which bodes well for the under. In Week 1, we took Oklahoma at -48.5. They led 41-0 at the half and won 48-0. I expect that to be something that happens a lot this season. I'm going to stay away from the spread, but I'll take the under as The Citadel fails to score all game.
BET: Clemson/The Citadel under 57.5
Sticking in the ACC, because where else is there really to go, I'm going to look at Duke and Boston College. BC is stepping on the field for the first time this season, while Duke is coming off of a very impressive performance against Notre Dame. Duke is favored by less than the key number, and I think actually hitting another team with pads on is going to make all the difference. Duke is better than people think, and BC is going to struggle early as they get into the rhythm of real football.
BET: Duke -6 For my final game, I'll step away from the ACC and take a look at Navy and Tulane. Navy got absolutely decimated in their first game against BYU. However, I don't think this says much about Navy, but more about how good BYU is. There is a reason why BYU broke away from the Mountain West (who is coming back) and decided to play their season: because they're good and they know it. Tulane meanwhile snuck by South Alabama in Week 1, and will now face a much bigger test in Navy. BYU had a full offseason to prepare for the triple-option. Tulane has had a week.
BET: Navy +6.5
That's all I have for this week. With the SEC getting underway next weekend, I should be able to find a few more bets. If you haven't checked out my NFL bets for Week 2, make sure to give it a look. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr. Enjoy the games! See you next time.