The Phive - College Football Week 5 (10/3) Picks
I should have been 5-0-1 in Week 4 but had two absolutely awful beats that knocked me down to 3-2-1. My record on the year is 10-5-1 which is nothing to be ashamed of, but wow could my record be incredible. Missouri scored on the last play of the game to hit the over, while Georgia left a field goal on the board when they could have taken the points off the board and knelt three times to end the game.
But like I've been saying all along, betting isn't always about winning money. A lot of it is about making the right reads. If you make the right reads you will have some bad beats, but you will win much more often than you lose. UAB -6.5 was another one of my bets. They won by 32. The Miami Hurricanes -11 was another. They won by 42. There was nothing lucky in Week 4. Just unlucky. Let's keep making the right reads and get luck on our side as well.
Record to this point:
NCAAF 10-5-1 (0-0)
My 5 Bets
Kyle Trask came out of Week 1 of the SEC looking like one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. He threw for 416 yards and six touchdowns as the Gators knocked off Ole Miss on the road. He will now turn his attention to the South Carolina Gamecocks who are coming off a devastating loss against Tennessee. The Rebels' defense is not expected to be good this season, but Florida still put up a 51 spot on them, and while that is impressive, the Gators' defense gave up 35 themselves.
When you look at how the South Carolina vs Tennessee game went in Week 1, the over was never in doubt. The Gamecocks' offense was able to score, while their defense struggled to get the job done. The SEC is known for its defense, but that all needs to be thrown out this year. Trask could go for another three or four touchdowns in this game, and I like both teams to get into the 30s.
BET: Florida-South Carolina over 57.5
For my next bet, I'm taking another SEC team. Arkansas burned me last week. They were leading midway through the third quarter and yet somehow failed to cover a 26.5-point spread. Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset of LSU, and we all know that KJ Costello will likely return to his averages at some point. However, Arkansas is a really bad football team. They had absolutely no offensive momentum against Georgia, and once Georgia got rolling, the Razorbacks had no chance of stopping them. There is absolutely no way they're keeping up with the Bulldogs in this one.
BET: Mississippi State -18
I don't think that anyone would argue that the Texas Longhorns are incredibly lucky to be 2-0 right now. They trailed Texas Tech 56-41 with 3:13 left, yet somehow found a way to force overtime and pull out the thrilling victory. I'm going to say that I'm more impressed with how Texas finished than how they played throughout and therefore, put more emphasis on the fact that they found a way to win. That's all that matters at the end of the day. The Red Raiders did barely beat Houston Baptist in their first game, but look at what Kansas State just did to Oklahoma after losing to Arkansas State. The transitive property can be dangerous, and because of that, I like Texas a lot against TCU this weekend as 12-point favorites. Look for Sam Ehlinger to have himself a day as the Longhorns get right and prove their worth amongst the rest of the college football elites.
BET: Texas -12
Next, I'm heading to the ACC for a bet that seems like one of the best of the weekend. The NC State Wolfpack are getting two touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and I simply do not get it. The Panthers are a better team than the Wolpack, but Pittsburgh has shown nothing offensively to say that we should trust them as two-touchdown favorites. They're a defensive-minded team, and while it will be difficult for NC State to score, I don't expect Pittsburgh to run away with this game. I don't expect them to run away with any games, to be frank. Expect a low-scoring game, one which Pittsburgh wins by single digits.
BET: NC State +14
For my final bet of the weekend, I'm looking at a game that many are probably ignoring. Navy is taking on Air Force in one of only two games that Air Force will be playing this season. Navy already has meaningful games under their belt and has proven that they can turn it on when they need to. Air Force hasn't played a game yet, and I think the preparation is going to be the difference here as the Midshipmen take care of their rival and cover a surprisingly small spread. I was expecting this to come in at two touchdowns.
BET: Navy -7
That's all I have for this weekend. Good luck everyone! Be sure to check out my NFL picks as well. And, as always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.