The Phive - Free Daily Sports Bets (9/5)
A solid 2-1 day, but unfortunately, neither Game 7 went our way in the NHL. Still, 5-1 in our last six bets not bad!
Remember when I said the Nuggets stink? The Bucks are worse. I don't care who's injured or whatever other excuse Bucks' fans and announcers want to make, the Bucks are awful right now. They're about to get swept by the Heat. They led by 12 heading into the fourth quarter and they lost by 15. Budenholzer won coach of the year. You have got to be kidding me. I'd like to see him coach once this series. Unfortunately, the Bucks are going to be our first really bad loss of the year. It happens. It's also why I generally don't bet anything over -200.
We lost the Avs series and game which is a bummer, but wow was that an incredible Game 7. The bets were sound. Injuries played a huge role in this series and had Colorado stayed healthy like they were when we placed the bet, they likely win the series in 5 or 6. Colorado's defensive woes proved too much for them to overcome, and as soon as the game went to OT, I knew they were toast. The Stars move on, which ultimately will make the NHL playoffs better. With all their injuries, the Avalanche would have been overmatched in the Conference Final.
And who will the Stars play? Well, the Canucks gave everything they had, but they fell short. And by the Canucks gave everything they have, I mean Thatcher Demko played absolutely out of his mind and was let down big time by his team. It was an epic series, and Game 7 was excellent. Vegas vs Dallas is going to be incredible.
Tomorrow promises to be just as exciting with the Flyers and Islanders squaring off in another NHL Game 7, and the long-awaited Kentucky Derby, but first I must interrupt our regularly scheduled programming.
Can I take a moment to talk about politics? Don't worry, you'll never get my stance on the upcoming US election. I always say, making your politics known does nothing except eliminate half your audience no matter which side you take. But I know there are surely some political junkies who follow me, so I feel I need to discuss the upcoming election a bit.
Seeing as this is a betting blog, I want to draw your attention to something very interesting. We're just under 60 days out from the election, and offshore books are changing their odds dramatically. You can't bet on the election at US books, but plenty of offshores offer odds on not just the election but also individual states. For the purposes of my point, let's take a look at BetOnline, one of the biggest and most reliable offshore books.
BetOnline currently has Trump favored to win the election over Biden. Trump's odds sit at -120, while Biden's sit at +100. Not a drastic difference, obviously, but here's where it gets interesting. Despite having Trump favored to win the election, BetOnline has him as an underdog in every single swing state with the exception of North Carolina.
Here's what they have:
State Trump's Odds Biden's Odds
Arizona -110 -120
Florida -110 -120
Michigan +160 -200
Minnesota +135 -165
New Hampshire +190 -240
Pennsylvania +125 -155
Wisconsin +110 -140
Why this is interesting is because for Trump to have any chance to win this election, he will almost surely need to win North Carolina (currently favored), Arizona, and Florida and then win one of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. New Hampshire doesn't carry enough votes to make a real difference.
So how can Trump be favored to win, but also be an underdog in every swing state with the exception of one, when in order to win, he'd need to win at least three of those other states? It's a curious question. I honestly don't have a feel for who is going to win the election at the moment, but if you have a read, now is the time to bet. You're either going to end up with great odds on Biden to win the Presidency, or you're going to get great odds on Trump to win the states he needs to win in order to be deemed the favorite.
It doesn't add up. If you want to bet on the election, get in before the math makes sense.
Here's where we stand:
COL/DAL over 6 goals (W)
Rockets +6.5 (W)
Colorado Avalanche (-135) (L)
Colorado Avalanche Series (-215) (L)
Bucks -1.5 (-195) (L)
Vancouver Canucks Series (+220) (L)
Record to this point:
Total 86-65 (21-17)
NBA 39-31 (4-6)
MLB 12-7 (5-1)
NHL 32-22 (11-9)
MLS 3-4 (1-1)
NCAAF 0-1 (0-0)
Notable: 58-42 in first 100 bets
NHL Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 8-3
New York Islanders (+118) - Series tied 3-3
NBA Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 6-2
Toronto Raptors (-152)
BOS/TOR series over 5.5 games (-235) - Celtics lead 2-1
Milwaukee Bucks (-385) - Heat lead 3-0
Los Angeles Clippers (-910)
Clippers 4-0 (+220) - Clippers lead series 1-0
Los Angeles Lakers (-670)
Total games over 5.5 (+110) Rockets lead 1-0
Run for the roses!
In September! Who would have thought? But hey, we made it, and despite being the second leg of the Triple Crown this year, the Kentucky Derby promises to be the most exciting and most bet horse race in America. I watched a lot of horse racing during quarantine, and that's why I was able to correctly pick Tiz the Law to win the Belmont. If only my father had listened to me. I think he wins here too, so now I'm looking for secondary horses. My reasoning is far from scientific so forgive me for being brief, but here are my projected top four horses. You can determine exactas, trifectas, and the like from there.
ORDER OF FINISH: Tiz the Law, NY Traffic, Honor A.P., Thousand Words
LONGSHOT: Major Fed
College football is really, really back!
Out here on the West Coast, the first college football game begins at 10am and the last is set to kickoff at 6 pm. College football is back and it's ready to consume my Saturdays even if I don't know anything about half the teams playing.
However, there is one game that really stood out to me for Saturday's slate and that's the Memphis Tigers and the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Being a Miami grad, I think that Arkansas State is a classless establishment. They gave Miami a hard time for canceling a game because of a hurricane and tried to smear The U's good name. Of course, it pretty much worked since the media loves to hate Miami, but I say bring on the hate. It only make our swagger stronger. All that being said, I can't believe how much Memphis is favored by. Arkansas State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and consistently gives lower-level teams from bigger conferences problems. Memphis is exactly that kind of team. As 18-point underdogs, I think you're getting a steal with the Red Wolves.
BET: Arkansas State +18
I can't confidently take the Raptors after they've bitten me in the first three games of the series, but I'm also worried that after that win in Game 3, it's going to give them all the momentum they need to propel them to tie the series. Therefore, I'm avoiding this game.
However, I'm jumping back on the Clippers because the Denver Nuggets simply cannot play with them. It's not even close. Denver is absolutely exhausted and they can't score. The Clippers didn't even look great in Game 1 and they still won by 23. I don't see the script changing as the series moves along. I'll probably end up taking the Clippers in every game, and at worst, I see myself going 3-1.
BET: Clippers -9
Game 7, Day 2
Both Game 7s on Friday were amazing. Am I being too greedy if I want to go 3/3? The Islanders and the Flyers have both proven that they have a never say die attitude. It's the reason why just when games seem out of reach, the trailing team manages to muster up an epic comeback and force overtime or win it outright. Because both teams have been so resilient, I'm not picking a side. We already have a future bet on the Islanders to win the series. Plus, the Islanders are heavily favored, but I'm not sure I agree with that. However, I do see one team jumping out to a lead and the other battling back and pushing the pace. Because of that, I'm going over.
BET: NYI/PHI over 5 goals
That's all I have for today's edition of The Phive. As always, reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr. Enjoy Saturday's events!