The Phive - Free Daily Sports Bets (9/7)
Yesterday was a bit of a cool-off day, which was to be expected after going 5-1 in my last six bets. We did get a nice plus-money winner with the Islanders series and were able to nail just our second NBA series prop when the Raptors won assuring at least six games.
I still don't have anything for today, but wanted to put this out in order to get in a Stars vs Golden Knights series bet for posterity's sake. I will also be making a play on the Islanders vs Lightning series which I am much more confident in. Other than that, all bets below are for MONDAY. I know most are off from work for Labor Day, so what better way to celebrate than by making some money on some bets.
Here's where we stand.
Arkansas State +18 (W)
New York Islanders Series (+118) (W)
BOS/TOR series over 5.5 games (-235) (W)
Clippers 4-0 (+220) (L)
Clippers -9 (L)
NYI/PHI over 5 goals (L)
Record to this point:
Total 89-68 (22-18)
NBA 40-33 (4-7)
MLB 12-7 (5-1)
NHL 33-23 (12-9)
MLS 3-4 (1-1)
NCAAF 1-1 (0-0)
Notable: 58-42 in first 100 bets
NHL Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 9-3
NBA Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 6-2
Toronto Raptors (-152) - Series tied 2-2
Milwaukee Bucks (-385) - Heat lead 3-0
Los Angeles Clippers (-910) - Series tied 1-1
Los Angeles Lakers (-670)
Total games over 5.5 (+110) - Rockets lead 1-0
NHL Conference Finals
On my Twitter, I had said that I wasn't making a play on the Golden Knights and Stars series. Well, I lied. The series line just keeps moving, and while I don't necessarily recommend you follow this bet blindly, my reasoning is that the Stars are now supremely undervalued in this series. I had originally seen this series line at +185 but now am seeing it at +205. That's a huge move and one I just can't pass up. This series could go the same way as the Golden Knights vs Canucks one did, but the Stars can score and that could cause problems for Vegas as the series progresses. My gut is telling me Vegas is going to win this series, but at this insanely inflated number, I'm taking the Stars to win. Think twice before betting, and make sure you agree with my reasoning.
BET: Dallas Stars Series (+205)
For my prop, I'm going to do exactly what I did with Vancouver. The Stars can win this series, and with their series spread of +1.5 at +105, I can't help but take it. Another good one to do would be over 6.5 games at +235. I could absolutely see this going seven games, but I'm more confident in the Stars either outright winning this series than I am in exactly seven games.
BET: Stars -1.5 games (+105)
For the other series, I am all in on the Islanders. The Islanders have been my team since day one, and if you follow my articles for BettingPros.com, you'll know that I recommended them as a best bet to win the Eastern Conference. This is when they were at +1150. I hope you were listening because now they are just four wins away from cashing in on that bet and competing for a Stanley Cup. The Lightning will be better rested, but the Islanders are the most resilient teams left in the playoffs. Barry Trotz has been here before and right now is coaching his guys to the best of their ability. I'll take the dog at a nice price.
BET: New York Islanders Series (+165)
For my prop, I'm going to take a chance. All the safe bets have inflated juice. I don't like that. Therefore, I'm going to go ahead and take the Islanders at -1.5 for a great number of +300. It's a longshot, but it could happen, and if it does I'm going to be very satisfied heading into the Stanley Cup. My lock would be this series going over 5.5 games, but right now the juice on that is -265. It's not worth it in a series that could possibly go five games.
BET: Islanders -1.5 games (+300)
As for tomorrow...
I'm taking the Islanders in Game 1. I don't think it's going to matter that the Lightning are well-rested and the Islanders aren't. New York barely broke a sweat in Game 7 against the Flyers, and have been playing great hockey throughout the playoffs. The Lightning were gifted goalie troubles by the Bruins which is a huge reason why they were able to get out of the series in just five games. The Islanders don't have goalie problems. I like them to get it done in Game 1.
BET: New York Islanders (+128)
Next, I'm heading over to the NBA to take the Clippers over the Nuggets. I was wrong in Game 2, but had it not been for an abysmal game from Kawhi, and a 44 point first quarter from the Nuggets, the Clippers still would have won this game. The Nuggets aren't going to have a quarter like that again this series, and Kawhi is going to go off in Game 3. It seems like the Clippers are just destined to have at least one terrible game in every series. The Nuggets aren't consistent, but Vegas is expecting them to keep it competitive in Game 3. I'll gladly take the points with the Clippers. If the Nuggets somehow win this game, then I'll reevaluate my read.
BET: Clippers -7.5
The number isn't out yet for Kawhi, but I will take anything up to 29.5. He was horrible in Game 2. It happens. Even the best playoff players have a bad game. But will lightning strike twice? I highly doubt it. I'm expecting the Clippers to come out and demolish the Nuggets much as they did to the Mavericks after the Mavericks threatened to make it a series after Game 4. I expect Kawhi to get it back and go for about 35 in this game. I'll update this once I see a line.
BET: Kawhi Leonard over <29.5 points
We got our first win with Arkansas State and will look to keep it going Monday Night. BYU is taking on Navy, and the line has moved three whole points making Navy the favorite in this game. Give me BYU. Zach Morris will build off last season and because this is the first game of the season, the Cougars will be ready to take on the triple-option that Navy loves to run. I can't believe this line has swung so much. Therefore, you could even look to take BYU straight up. For me, the number isn't enticing enough, so I'll take the points and go from there.
BET: BYU +1.5
For my next bet, I'm getting a little ahead of myself. I'm already looking ahead to Thursday night's game. The Miami Hurricanes are taking on the UAB Blazers and the line has dropped all the way to Miami -14.5. It had opened at -16.5. I love the Hurricanes. Now, obviously I love the Hurricanes because I went to Miami, but I generally bet against Miami, because in recent years, they have been supremely overrated at the start of seasons. But when it comes to 2020, not so fast. The Hurricanes bring in Houston transfer D'Eriq King who will take over the offense and look to be the first consistent starting QB for Miami in over a decade. He's going to get it done. King has a lot to prove, and the only thing holding Miami back in the last few seasons has been a great QB. King is just that. Look for him to light up the Blazers who didn't look all that great against Central Arkansas. If this number keeps dropping, take it again. I like Miami to win by over 20.
BET: Miami -14.5 (Thursday)
That's all I have for today. I'll be back at my usual time tomorrow with another edition of The Phive. Until then, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.