The Phive - 5 Daily Sports Bets (8/9)
Well, we just had our worst beat of the year. I could argue this is going to be the worst one I have all year. Let's break it down. The Blazers are up two against the Clippers backups with 26 seconds left, give up the lead, and have Lillard go to the line down one. He misses both free throws. Then the Clippers score to go up three. The Blazers don't score. They foul. The Clippers go up five. CJ McCollum chucks up a three, and it goes in. It counts. We escape. They call the basket off after my TV says final 122-120. New final: 122-117.
Blazers lose by 5. We had them at 4.5. It literally does not get any worse than that. That's going to sting for a long, long time.
Oh, and then it got better. The Avalanche lost in overtime with 15 seconds left. I like their chances in a shootout, but overtime hockey rules killed us.
Then there is Clayton Kershaw. What a dud. He must have thought it was October the way he was pitching against the Giants.
At least the Diamondbacks and Flyers did what they were supposed to do. We escape 2-3, but it feels like a day of could have beens.
So, today is going to be different. Today is going to be a breather day. A day to reflect on two bad days in a row. Breather days can be useful. Finding five bets every day isn't easy. So today there will only be two confident bets and a lean. It's the best I could do.
PHI/TB under 6 goals (W)
First 5 innings ARZ/SD under 4.5 (-120) (W)
Trail Blazers +4.5 (L)
Colorado Avalanche (-110) (L)
First 5 innings LAD -1.5 (-104) (L)
Record to this point:
Total 27-19 (1-5)
NBA 17-8 (0-1)
MLB 5-4 (0-1)
NHL 3-4 (0-2)
MLS 2-3 (1-1)
Futures in the mix:
Trail Blazers over 3.5 wins (+120) - 3 wins, 3 games left
Trail Blazers 8-seed (+400) - 9th place, 1.5 games back of Memphis
After all that sadness, what do I like?
Great question. Right now, I'm feeling a little timid. My last few days have been meh. The reads haven't necessarily been wrong, yet it seems like things are just going the wrong way every time. Giving five bets every day is probably a bit ambitious anyway. But I have to give you something.
The Blazers are taking on the 76ers, and Philly just learned that Ben Simmons will be having knee surgery which will keep him out the remainder of the playoffs. That should mean I'm all in on the Blazers, but I can't confidently back a team that fell apart as badly as they did today. Damien Lillard let the Clippers get in his head, and I worry that may linger now that things are starting to tighten up in the West. I want the Blazers win very badly for my futures, but I'm not sure I trust it. If you like the Blazers this is a great number to get them at. If you think they're going to be tired, then I would wait. The sixers likely take money here because of how visible this loss was by the Blazers. I'd avoid the spread and take the Blazers outright if you really want to get in on this game.
LEAN: Portland Trail Blazers (-126)
The Pelicans are favored by three over the Spurs, and I'm not sure I understand this line. What have the Pelicans done so far to warrant being favorites against anybody in this bubble? Everything is telling me to go with the Spurs, which based on my recent reads, worries me. But even if Zion plays a lot of meaningful minutes, are the Pelicans actually better than the Spurs? I don't think so. This game is huge for play-in series hopes. I have to go with the team that has looked better throughout the bubble.
BET: Spurs +3
The Grizzlies are taking on the Raptors, and the Raptors have already locked up the second seed in the Eastern Conference. We saw how they looked against the Celtics the other night, and I'm thinking that they've about thrown in the towel at this point as they look ahead to their first playoff series. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have gotten new life after the Blazers fell to the Clippers and it's hard not to like them to come out and play much more inspired than Toronto. I'm not sure they'll get the win, considering if the Raptors play to their potential, they should win easily, but +7.5 for a team that needs this win against a team that doesn't, seems like a great bet.
BET: Grizzlies +7.5
That's all I got. I'm not touching the MLB. Even the 1-1 yesterday didn't feel great. Something just seems off. I'll let the rest of these games play out unless I see something I really like tomorrow morning.
Join me tomorrow morning at 9am PT for another episode of "On The Card". If you have any questions or want to hear my take on another game, please send me a message on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.