NFL Week 2 Bets
Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL season. Week 1 saw me go just 7-6, but I did nail four of my top five picks. Because of the way that I do my units, I ended the week with 5.76 units. That means if you bet alongside me and weighted your bets based on my confidence (I weight on 1-3 units), you are up 5.76 units. That's a great start and assuming one unit is $100 dollars, you are up $576.
This week is going to be interesting because there are a lot of monstrous spreads out there. I have mentioned that I must make at least four ATS, four total, and four ML bets in order to be considered on the leaderboard. I'm also in a pool that forces you to take five ATS bets each week. I went 4/5 in Week 1, with just the Lions -2.5 losing. Not a bad read at all.
The problem this week is that with huge spreads come huge MLs. I almost didn't bother telling you one of my ML bets because the number is so huge, but I need to make four bets for the competition I'm in and figured you can use the bet for parlays and such. Making it on its own isn't worth it.
As I did in Week 1, I will take you through each individual game and then rank my bets from 1-13 at the end of this post.
Record to this point:
NFL 7-6 (0-1)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
I've been fighting with myself over this game since Monday. Joe Burrow is making just the second start of his career. It's a short week. The Browns just got embarrassed by the Ravens. Burrow is on the road for the first time, the Browns are at home for a Thursday Night contest. Everything is pointing toward Cleveland. And yet, I can't pull the trigger. I trust the Browns so little that I'm actually going to avoid this game when all indicators point toward taking Cleveland.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars ruined a lot of people's Sundays when they took down the Colts in Week 1. I had Indianapolis in my Survivor pool, and I still don't understand how they lost that game. I guess it's just the Philip Rivers way. Gardner Minshew threw just one incompletion all game, but won't have the same success this week against the Titans. The Titans left 10 points on the board because of Stephen Gostkowski but still managed to find a way to win a huge road game in the season-opener. That's the sign of a team that knows how to win. I'm not taking the spread, but I will take the under. It burned me in Week 1 taking the under on the Jaguars' game, but the Titans' defense is great and the Jaguars' offense, no matter what they did in Week 1, isn't.
BET: JAC/TEN under 42
BET only as a parlay: Tennessee Titans -400
New York Giants vs Chicago Bears
I have nothing to say about this game. Neither team revealed their true selves in Week 1, and therefore, I'm going to take a wait and see approach with each.
Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys
The Falcons burned me in Week 1, but I'm going back to the well one more time because the number here is just extremely juicy. The Cowboys should have at least tied the Rams in Week 1, but questionable playcalling and a horrible pass interference call kept it from happening. They should rebound here, but I'm not entirely convinced that the Falcons are done after their Week 1 performance. If the offense can get rolling earlier, they will be able to hang with Dallas. Dallas is a public team that everyone expects to be better than they are. But what if they just aren't?
BET: ATL/DAL over 52 (take up to 53.5)
BET: Atlanta Falcons +200
Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers
I have two bets in this game as well, and quite frankly, I love both of them. The Steelers are favored by 7.5 here, and I'm not really sure why. They beat the Giants by 10 on opening night, but the game was much closer than that. Had it not been for a huge interception in the red zone, the Giants would have been within striking distance all game long. Big Ben's numbers were great, but he was going against the Giants' secondary. The Broncos are much better than the Giants and they love playing close games. I love this game to be a low-scoring defensive battle, one that Pittsburgh ultimately wins by just a field goal.
BET: Broncos +7.5
BET: DEN/PIT under 41.5
Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts
The Vikings are going to win this game. Their defense is not nearly as good as it was in the last two seasons, but they are not going to start 2020 0-2. It's simply not going to happen. The Colts struggled defensively against Gardner Minshew, and that is only going to be amplified by the passing attack of Minnesota. I have zero faith in Philip Rivers right now. Until he proves he's not over the hill, I'll be betting against him.
BET: Vikings +3
BET: Minnesota Vikings +135
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have nothing on this game. The Bucs' defense looked good against the Saints, but does that mean they're going to win by double-digits? It should, but I need to see more from Tom Brady this season before I bet him to cover a 10-point spread. As for the total, your guess is as good as mine.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
I love the Bills in this spot. They're being undervalued going on the road to play the Dolphins, and I'm not understanding why. The Dolphins gave up 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns to Cam Newton last week and will be taking on pretty much the exact same quarterback in Josh Allen. The problem for Miami is that the Bills are better than the Patriots. They are better defensively, they're better offensively, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to make too many mistakes to keep this one close.
BET: Bills -5.5
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets
The 49ers are traveling across the country. Who cares? They're coming off a heartbreaking loss and will take out their frustrations on an absolutely terrible Jets' team. I wouldn't take this above the key number, but I like it at -7.
BET: 49ers -7
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
I've been going back and forth on this one as well, but have finally decided that I am taking the Rams' ML. The Eagles gave up eight sacks to the Football Team last week, so how are they going to stop Aaron Donald and company? There are too many injuries for the Eagles to sneak out of here with a win. Maybe it happens, but I just can't fathom how.
BET: Los Angeles Rams -110
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers was amazing in Week 1, while the Lions found a way to lose a game they had no business losing. Seems easy enough for Green Bay this week, right? Not so fast. Like I said with TB vs NO last week, it's a trap. Do not take the Packers in this spot, but I'm also not confident enough in the Lions to take them either.
Washington Football Team vs Arizona Cardinals
I want to take the Cardinals so badly, but this is another game that feels like a trap. The Football Team showed a lot of resilience in Week 1, and while I think Arizona is superior to them, this could be a letdown spot for a team that just won a dramatic game over their division rivals. I'm going to stay away from this, even as it hovers just under the key number. Something tells me that Vegas knows.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Hurry up and get in before this crosses the key number. I got in when it was -6.5 and it has since moved to -7. The Texans are not a very good football team. We saw it in Week 1 against the Chiefs where the final score was not at all indicative of what actually took place in the game. Now they have to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense, and I just don't see any way the Texans' defense slows them down. This is going to be a high-scoring game, and the Texans are not going to be able to keep up.
BET: Ravens -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
This was my sixth-best ATS pick of the week, and therefore, I'm going to hold off on betting. I like the Chiefs, but with a number that keeps growing, I like other teams more. The Chiefs dominated against the Texans in Week 1, but let the Texans score a lot late to make the game deceivingly close. Obviously, Tyrod Taylor isn't Deshaun Watson, but I'm still going to avoid the large spread and the possibility of a back door cover.
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
I was going to take the under in this one, but then pulled back because I remembered that this isn't the same Patriots' team as years past. I could see this being a low-scoring game, but I could also see Seattle putting up a lot of points, and Cam Newton doing enough to keep it close. I have no read here, so I'm staying away.
New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Thomas is out, Drew Brees didn't look great in Week 1, and yet I'm still taking the over in this game. Why? Because the Raiders' defense is not good at all, and because Derek Carr can score for both teams. I saw an insane stat that dating back to last season, 68% of primetime games have gone under. This game is going to be one of the 32%.
BET: NO/LV over 49.5
Here are all my bets for this week ranked:
1. Vikings +3
2. Broncos +7.5
3. Bills -5.5
4. JAC/TEN under 42
5. Ravens -6.5
6. Los Angeles Rams -110
7. DEN/PIT under 41.5
8. Minnesota Vikings +135
9. 49ers -7
10. ATL/DAL over 52 (Only low because the number is rising)
11. NO/LV over 49.5
12. Atlanta Falcons +200
13. Tennessee Titans -400 (Great for a parlay, not need to take solo)
That's all I have for today. I'll be back tomorrow morning on TRHS Sports with Adam Jumba as we go through all the games for this week and pick winners. Be sure to tune into that. Adam had himself quite the week. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.