NFL Week 3 Bets
Week 2 was annoying. I still managed to go 7-6, and somehow gained units over at BettingPros, but there were so many missed opportunities that it just feels like a disappointment. I was all over the Falcons +200 only to have it ripped away from me in the final seconds, I got backdoor covered by the Dolphins on a pointless touchdown with just seconds remaining, and I had to sit down and watch the entire Vikings' game knowing that I not only took them on the moneyline but also against the spread.
The good news is we avoided any potential disasters, and as I said, I actually gained units on BettingPros just because of how I dished out my units for each particular bet. Against the spread, I'm up 8.07 units, while I'm up 5.11 units on the moneyline. However, I'm down 6.44 units on totals, bringing me to a grand total of 6.74. Still not bad at all if you consider every unit $100. Now, if I could just consistently hit over/unders and get some of these underdogs to hold on, we'd really be cooking.
Record to this point:
NFL 14-12 (0-3)
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
It's not the most exciting Thursday night game, but it certainly offers up one of the most intriguing spreads of the entire weekend. The Jaguars have started the season playing really good football and will look to get above .500 against the easiest opponent they've faced this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 0-2, going on the road for a Thursday night game, and many in Miami are just counting down the days until Tua is under center. But all hope is not lost in Miami. The Dolphins are 0-2 because of who they played, the Bills and the Patriots, and while the Jaguars may look intimidating in the box scores, early-season success does not always lead to continued success throughout the season. The Dolphins were +2.5 earlier, meaning that Vegas was essentially begging bettors to go in on the Jaguars. I think the public listened as the line has since moved to +3. I see you Vegas. And I know you know.
Also, because I have to take four moneyline plays this week, the Dolphins are one of two dogs for me.
BET: Miami Dolphins +3
BET: Dolphins +135
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
I don't like this game. The Raiders are coming off an exciting Week 2 upset of the Saints on Monday Night Football, while many around the league are calling the Patriots' loss to the Seahawks a "good" loss. The Pats are favored by 5.5, which really makes me want to take New England. But what if the Raiders are for real? I'm staying away.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
Every week I've announced my best bet of the week, and every week thus far, I've lost that bet. That's all going to change this week when the Atlanta Falcons wipe the floor with the Chicago Bears. The Falcons absolutely imploded last week against the Cowboys and killed me on a nice +200 moneyline. But while the Falcons are 0-2, the Bears are 2-0 and could easily be in the same boat as Atlanta. They needed a miraculous comeback in Week 1 to knock off the Lions and very nearly blew a 17-0 lead to a Saquon-less Giants' team. The Falcons are talented, they're finally not playing against a top-five QB in the league, and most importantly, they're desperate.
BET: Falcons -3
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants
This would have been an easy 49ers' spread bet, but with all their injuries, I just can't pull the trigger. The Giants have been playing pretty solid football so far this season, and even without Saquon, I expect them to give San Fran some trouble. Jimmy Garoppolo is likely going to miss this game, meaning Nick Mullens is getting the start. I think Mullens has enough weapons to do some damage against the Giants' secondary, and I think Daniel Jones should be able to take advantage of a battered 49ers' defense. This game has the lowest total in the league. Give me the over.
BET: 49ers/Giants over 42
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are my Survivor pool pick this week, but that's where my excitement for this game ends. I don't know if it will be high or low scoring, because I expect Philly to run the ball all over the Bengals' horrid rush defense. Will they grind the clock or will they end up busting off huge plays that run this score up? And what about the spread? Are we really going to trust the Eagles to hold off Joe Burrow late in the game if they're playing with a double-digit lead? Take the Eagles' moneyline for some parlays, but other than that, stay away.
BET: Eagles -230
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Texans are not a very good football team this season, yet I like them against the spread in this game. The Steelers are 1-1 ATS but didn't look very sound offensively or defensively last week against the Broncos who were without Drew Lock most of the game. Deshaun Watson knows how detrimental starting 0-3 would be to his playoff chances, and I think Houston comes out incredibly desperate and keeps pace with the Steelers. Whether or not they win, I don't know, but they'll keep it close enough to cover.
BET: Texans +4
Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills
I love the Rams in this spot, and with how the line is moving, I suggest you get in before this game is essentially a pick 'em. There isn't much value in taking them against the spread, though it is one of my ATS bets this week for the contest where I have to enter five picks. If I could take them on the moneyline, I absolutely would, and I suggest you do the same as taking them at +2 doesn't offer much safety. The Bills are a good team, but this is the best defense Josh Allen has faced so far this season, and the Rams are going to cause problems for him.
BET: Rams +2
BET: Rams +110
Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
These two teams are a combined 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played, and because of that, I am staying very far away from this game. Key number or not, I don't like either side no matter where the final spread ends up. As for the total, I have no clue. Seriously, I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.
Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings
I want to take the Vikings because of how desperate they are, but I fear that Minnesota really is just a terrible football team this year. The Titans are 2-0 and have won their games by a combined five points, so I don't exactly trust them. The total is high, but both of these teams are certainly capable of scoring. They're also capable of doing absolutely nothing offensively. I'm staying away.
New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts
The Colts -10.5 is the biggest number on the board, and while I think Indianapolis is going to decimate the Jets, part of me still expects this game to be close. I don't trust my instincts with either of these teams so I'm going to stay away, but if you really must bet this game, I'd bet the under which is currently at 44.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers
I was originally going to take the Chargers here, but with the information that has come out regarding Tyrod Taylor, I worry that LA is going to be very distracted coming into this game. I think a lot of Justin Herbert's success against the Chiefs was because he was an unknown, and I want to see more of him before I start throwing my money at games he's a part of. As for the Panthers, I think they're the worst team in football. I'm staying away. But only because there are other lines I like more, and because of what happened with Taylor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos
The Broncos' injury report is a mile long, which is why the Bucs seem like such a logical choice here. But Jeff Driskell played a lot of football last season, and with the altitude sure to play a factor, I'm going to stay away from this game. Tampa hasn't shown me anything yet, while the Broncos have proven they can keep games close. But will they be able to score this week? I suspect not, but I'm not putting money on it.
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Take the over. The Cardinals' defense could cause problems for the Lions, but as I've said a few times in this article, desperate teams play desperate, and the Lions are very desperate right now. Matthew Stafford has the talent to lead his team to victory and with Kenny Golladay on the field, he will be excited to add to his weapons. On the other side of the ball, the Lions are useless. Their defense can't stop anyone, and with how well the Cardinals' offense has looked this season, I wouldn't be shocked to see Arizona plant 30+ on the scoreboard.
BET: Lions/Cardinals over 55
Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks
I'm taking the over again in this one. This game and the game between Detroit and Arizona are the two highest totals of the week, but I like both of them to go over because of how bad the defenses in each game are. The Seahawks are 2-0 and they can thank Russell Wilson for that. Their defense has given up over 840 yards through the air through two weeks, and I expect that trend to continue this week against the Cowboys. Wilson will have to keep pace with Dak, and since I think the Seahawks will find a way to win this one, I expect both teams to finish in the 30s.
BET: Cowboys/Seahawks over 55.5
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
And now for an under. The Saints have not looked like themselves on the offensive side of the ball this season, and with it unlikely that Michael Thomas will be back for this game, or at the very most in a limited capacity, I think the Saints are going to continue to struggle. I also think this number is lower than the other two games previously mentioned because Vegas is begging you to take the over. Remember when Rodgers put up 40 points in back to back games? Remember? Remember? I remember, and I know that Vegas knows.
BET: Packers/Saints under 52.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
Why am I getting the hook? What does Vegas know that I don't? This line opened as Baltimore -3 but has since moved to 3.5, and I can't justify not taking the defending Super Bowl champs against the spread when they're getting more than a field goal. This is going to be a great game and incredibly close, and while the Ravens could certainly win, I'm also going to take the moneyline here. Again, it's only because I have to do four picks each week, but the Chiefs offer serious value here, and this is likely the only time they'll be underdogs all season. If you can get this number at +3.5 take that. If the spread is +3 or smaller, then I suggest taking the moneyline.
BET: Chiefs +3.5
BET: Chiefs +155
Today, I'm ranking all of my moneyline bets at the bottom with the exception of the Rams. The reason for this is I think you should definitely take the spread instead of the moneyline in all underdog instances except that one, and I think the Eagles' price is too expensive but great for a parlay.
Here are all my bets for this week ranked:
1. Falcons -3
2. Rams +110
3. Packers/Saints under 52.5
4. Chiefs +3.5
5. Miami Dolphins +3
6. Cowboys/Seahawks over 55.5
7. Texans +4
8. 49ers/Giants over 42
9. Lions/Cardinals over 55
10. Chiefs +155
11. Dolphins +135
12. Rams +2 (low because ML is better, but I needed a fifth spread)
13. Eagles -230
That's all I have for today. Good luck out there! And make sure to check out my college football bets as well! As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.