NFL Week 4 Bets
Week 3 had the potential to be a huge week. The Falcons led by 16 in the fourth quarter, the Rams battled back to take the lead after trailing by 25, and the Texans played nearly the entire game within the point spread. And what happens? We end 6-6-1. That brings my record to 20-18-1 on the season, and while I still finished the week up units due to hitting the Dolphins and Chiefs moneyline, it feels like another week of what-ifs.
On another note, this week I will still be ranking my bets but will break them down into three categories. This way if you only bet against the spread, you'll know which bets I like most. With how I've been with totals this season, it would be foolish of me to say I like any of them more than any of the spreads I'm on.
Also, I didn't like four moneylines this week, so I put the Ravens here. Essentially, this just means I'm betting 3 fake units to win barely anything on BettingPros so they continue ranking me in their moneyline leaderboard. Don't bet real money on the Ravens moneyline unless it's a parlay.
Record to this point:
NFL 20-18-1 (2-4)
Denver Broncos vs New York Jets
Brett Rypien is starting for the Denver Broncos. That's all I need to hear. I'm going with the worst team in football and taking the New York Jets at home on a short week to knock off the Broncos who have looked just as lost as the Jets of late. Neither one of these teams is exciting, and both offenses are very bad, but the Jets do get Jamison Crowder back, and I like him to be enough to help Sam Darnold lead this offense to something remotely competent.
BET: New York Jets -112
Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins
This is one of the trickiest games of the season, and I am not saying that facetiously. If you listened to Mike and I discuss this game, you know we're both on the same page and it's likely not the side you're expecting. Vegas is begging you to throw your money on the Seahawks. That is the only reason why they put this at -6.5. If Vegas wants you to put money somewhere, then it is likely the wrong side. Seattle will win this game, but traveling across the country to play the Dolphins who are getting three extra days of rest and aren't coming off back to back dramatic victories is going to make all the difference. Wait and get this at +7 if you can, but even if this drops to +6, the Dolphins are the right side.
BET: Dolphins +6.5
Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Football Team
Lamar Jackson is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, and the Ravens are going to do everything they can to get his confidence back. Luckily for all involved, the Ravens get to take on the Washington Football Team, which has been absolutely terrible since their first-week victory over the Eagles. This spread is massive, but the Ravens love to beat bad teams badly.
BET: Ravens -13
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like this under a lot, which may be enough to send you running the other way. ATS and moneyline, I'm up this year, but when it comes to totals, I've been terrible. But the truth is, both of these defenses are very good. The Chargers did just give up 21 to the Panthers, but that doesn't scare me. Plus, I don't think that the Chargers are going to be able to score very much at all against a solid Bucs' defense. I have no spread play, but I think this one ends around 21-17 or 21-10.
BET: LAC/TB under 43
Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
I'm taking the over. Neither defense has been even remotely good this season, and despite the high total, I firmly believe that both teams are going to score at least 28 points in this game. Offensively, the Cowboys have had no trouble scoring points, but defensively they've really struggled. Now that the Browns have figured out how to utilize both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, I like them to put up plenty of points in this game, even though they should still lose.
BET: CLE/DAL over 56
New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions
I have nothing to say about this game. The Lions and Saints are both 1-2, and while many will go with the Saints because of who they are, Drew Brees has actually struggled in his career against Matthew Stafford led teams. I'm just going to watch this one play out.
Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Doubling up is never a good idea when betting. I have to do it a lot because I need to make a certain number of picks each week and taking the Ravens at -800 isn't worth it, but I don't like the idea. However, I'm doubling up a few times this week. I love the Bears on the moneyline here and think there is great value in taking them at home against the Colts. Many may say the Bears have been lucky, and that is true, but now they have Nick Foles under center. They still have wins over teams with a combined record of 1-8, but so do the Colts. With how good the Bears' defense can be, there is no reason the Colts should be favored on the road. I like the moneyline more than the spread, just because of the value it offers, but will take both because I need to.
BET: Chicago Bears +120
BET: Bears +2.5
Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals -3.5 is my favorite bet of the weekend. That hasn't worked out for me of late, but it's not for a lack of trying. The reads have been right, the beats have been bad. The Cardinals are coming off a field goal loss to the Lions and everyone is overreacting about what that means. Meanwhile, the Panthers just beat the Chargers in LA, and many are overly impressed with that performance because of how the Chargers looked the week before against the Chiefs. Don't use the transitive property.
BET: Cardinals -3.5
BET: Arizona Cardinals -175
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Last week, Joe Burrow got his first non-loss as an NFL quarterback when he tied the Philadelphia Eagles. This week, he is going to get his first win. The Jaguars are starting to look like the team that everyone expected them to be, while the Bengals have shown hat they're going to be competitive in just about every game this season. James Robinson worries me against the weak Bengals' defense, but I expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind most of the game which benefits this spread.
BET: Bengals -3
New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams
Last week, the Giants looked horrible for the first time this season, and I think that is going to continue into this game. Clearly, Vegas agrees with me as New York is +13 against the Rams. However, I don't really like this spread just because of how big it is. The Rams could score 30 or they could score 17 and just call it a day. Therefore, I'm going to play the total here and take the under in a game where the Giants should really struggle.
BET: NYG/LAR under 48
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
This is going to be one of the best games of the weekend, and yet I'm staying away from it. This is a "prove it" game for Cam Newton who has started the season 2-1. The Chiefs are a much better team than the Pats, but coming off a huge win against the Ravens, this could be a bit of a letdown spot. Bill Belichick is the best coach in football, so I hate picking against him. All around, I'll just enjoy this game with no action on either side.
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
Are the Bills really this good? In his last 14 games, Josh Allen has 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Is he really an 11:1 ratio passer? I have too many unanswered questions to confidently take the Bills coming off a very dramatic win as they head across the country to take on the Raiders. But while I still have questions about the Bills, I have even more about the Raiders. Las Vegas looked terrible against the Patriots last weekend, but that was coming on the heels of beating the New Orleans Saints. I don't know what to do, so I'll stay away.
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
I'm going with the under in this one because both offenses have been so questionable this season. Carson Wentz has been absolutely awful, and though Nick Mullens was great last week, I'm not sold that it's going to carry over to this game. I don't expect the 49ers to come anywhere near their total from last week, and I really don't trust anything about the Eagles right now.
BET: PHI/SF under 46
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
The total keeps dropping, which means I'm going with the over. This line opened at 58 but has since dropped to 56.5. If you can get this number at 56 or lower that's even better, but I have seen nothing from either of theses defenses that makes me think the under should be looked at. The Packers' defense hasn't been able to stop anyone while their offense has been simply unstoppable. If this gets up to 60, then take the under and possibly middle this.
BET: ATL/GB over 56.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
It looks like this game is going to be played on Monday, but as the first game affected by COVID, I'm staying away and will just enjoy that we have two Monday night games this week. Both teams are 3-0, but you could make the case that both teams are pretending. With routines thrown off by the schedule change, I'm just going to let this one go.
1. Cardinals -3.5
2. Bengals -3
3. Ravens -13
4. Bears +2.5
5. Dolphins +6.5
1. Chicago Bears +120
2. New York Jets -112
3. Arizona Cardinals -175
4. Baltimore Ravens -800 (Don't bet this. Just for parlays, and because I need a fourth)
1. LAC/TB under 43
2. NYG/LAR under 48
3. ATL/GB over 56.5
4. PHI/SF under 46
That's all I have for today. I'll be back tomorrow with my college football picks. Follow me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr and be on the lookout for models based on each of my games coming soon!