The Phive - 5 Daily Sports Bets (7/31)
For any of you who've followed me and my Survivor podcast from the start, you'll know that for a brief period of time, in addition to podcasting episode recaps, I also wrote recaps. I titled this series "The Phive", because, well, my name is Phil and I was writing about five talking points. The Phive was retired years ago, but for those of you who never gave up hope that it would come back, today is your lucky day. It's back, except this time it's all about sports betting.
Yesterdays Bets: Jazz +2.5 (W)
Record to this point: 1-0
Futures in the mix: Trail Blazers over 3.5 wins (+120), Trail Blazers 8-seed (+400), Bucks under 6.5 wins (-250)
Today's five bets:
29 points per game - sounds good to me!
The Rockets and the Mavericks are facing off later tonight in what I expect to be a very high-scoring affair (more on that in a bit). If you listened to my first "On the Card" podcast on TRHS Sports, I talked about one particular player prop that didn't have a number out yet. That prop was Kristaps Porzingis' points total, and I said to bet the over if it came in at 22 or 23 points. Lucky for me, the line came in even better than expected. FanDuel currently has the bet listed at 21.5. Porzingis averaged 29 points per game against the Rockets in his previous two matchups and went over 21.5 on both occasions (23 and 35). This game is going to be a shootout, and I like Porzingis to continue to find ways to score against Houston.
BET: Kristaps Porzingis Over 21.5 Points
Are we still riding Portland?
We absolutely are. The Pelicans game last night was great for a lot of reasons. Number one, it meant that I started off 1-0, but more importantly, it paved the way for the Trail Blazers to step in and scoop up the number eight seed. If Portland can muster a win tonight vs the Grizzlies, the gap between eight and nine will shrink to 2.5 games, and New Orleans will need to win two more games than Portland in order to sneak into the ninth spot. However, if the Trail Blazers should fall to Memphis, then the Grizzlies have set themselves up nicely to secure the eight-seed without ever having to play the mini-series against the nine-seed. The Blazers know what's at stake here, and based on how much I hyped them up in yesterday's post, I'd be a fool not to think they're going to take care of business today. The spread is currently at Portland -2, and I absolutely love that line and the team that Portland is putting out there. Ja Morant said yesterday he thought the restart system was unfair. Seems like he's with me and already counting the Grizzlies next game as a loss.
BET: Portland -2
A lot of you have been asking about MLS!
Alright, maybe not a lot of you. In fact, no one has ever asked anyone for more MLS betting advice, but I'm going to give you a take anyway because I think there is a phenomenal opportunity to make some money tonight. As I'm sure everyone is aware, the quarterfinal stage of the MLS Is Back tournament is well underway, and tonight features what is sure to be the most exciting game of the entire round. Orlando City is taking on LAFC in a game that is sure to be full of scoring opportunities. In their last game, Orlando managed just a 1-0 victory, but for anyone who watched that game (sigh... I did) they had numerous opportunities to stretch the lead to three or four. LAFC also loves to score, and the best part is, they also like to give up goals. In the group stage, LAFC scored 11 goals and gave up 7, and in their round of 16 game against Seattle, they won 4-1. That's a lot of scoring. I expect LAFC to win this game easily, but I also expect Orlando to get on the board. The over of 4.5 poses a nice +260 line, and if you're feeling really brave, over 5.5 is sitting at +575 right now. I'll play it safe, but don't be afraid to take a chance here.
BET: Total goals over 4.5 (+260)
Can we please finally get one MLB bet?
Fine, I'll give in. If you saw my first post, you'll know that I'm only discussing MLB bets that I feel NEED to be played, because historically, I have been adequate at best at betting the MLB. However, if you listened to my first episode of "On the Card", you'll know that yesterday I had great success with the Cleveland ML (as mini-dogs) and Yankees over 6.5 runs (Thank You Aaron Judge!), so I'm feeling arrogant.
Where am I going today? Well, I'm going to stick with what I know: the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Yankees scored five runs in the first inning against the Orioles last night, then went scoreless until the ninth inning when Aaron Judge blasted a three-run homer. That's the thing with the Yankees. They can score at any moment. And this year, the Red Sox have one of the worst pitching staffs they've had in years. For this game, they're throwing Ryan Weber on the mound, and it's hard to imagine him being able to shut down the Yankees' high-powered offense. In his first start, Weber gave up six runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Orioles. Not good.
But I also don't really trust the Yankees starter, Jordan Montgomery. We haven't seen him yet this season, and getting your first start against your archrivals is never a good thing no matter what the circumstances are inside the stadium.
I've toyed with a lot of different overs in this game. The Yankees over 6.5 stood out, as did the first 5 over of 6.5. I don't think you can go wrong with either of those. But I'm going to go traditional here and take the full nine-inning over of 10.5. Both teams are going to score. And when it comes to Yankees/Red Sox, it's foolish to bet one side over the other no matter how uneven the teams may seem.
BET: Total Over 10.5
And now my final, and favorite, bet of the day:
Shootout in Orlando - Texas-style
In tonight's final game down in Orlando, the Rockets are taking on the Mavericks in what is sure to be a high-scoring affair. The total is currently set at 228, and I have to say that I'd like this even if it went up to 230. Eric Gordon is out for the Rockets, and while that will certainly hurt the offensive production, it doesn't mean we're going to see a drastic dive in production from either side. These teams met twice in the regular season. The first game saw the Mavericks win 137-123, while the second game saw the Rockets win 128-121. Those are totals of 260 and 249! Without fans, this is essentially going to be a very good pick up game, one where both teams make a lot more than they miss. To me, this is a no-brainer and the best bet of the day.
BET: Total Over 228
Make sure to check back tomorrow for another edition of The Phive! If you want more, please be sure to check out my first episode of "On the Card" on the TRHS Sports YouTube channel, and follow me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.