The Phive - 5 Daily Sports Bets (8/3)
Well, it finally happened. I finally lost an NBA bet. In fact, I lost two. One was a parlay that had some pretty good odds, so I can't complain too much, and the other was a good read that ultimately went south late. It still stinks to see the goose egg turn into a different number.
In better news, I finally got my first victory in the NHL with a miracle under in the Bruins/Flyers game. The Bruins went the final four minutes with an empty net, and man, was I sweating.
The Jusuf Nurkic bet was a joke. He had it in the first half, same with the Jarrett Allen bet I didn't place but told you I was seriously considering. The Suns not only covered, but won, and the total would have gone over if the Mavericks didn't shoot 6-31 from three-point land. Seriously. 6-31. And the total still only missed by five. Crazy.
As for today, if you haven't checked out my live show "On The Card" on the TRHS Sports YouTube channel, be sure to click the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCA5N7WnP80 for an early look at my bets from now until Thursday. A lot of what you see here is going to be a repeat of what I talked about over there, plus the show has more bets for today than just the five I'm going to list here. My reasoning below is going to be pretty sparse, so if you need real convincing check out the show. This will likely be the case on Mondays and Fridays since I record on Mondays at 9 am PT and Thursday at 4 pm PT.
Here's where I stand at the moment:
PHI/BOS under 5.5 (W)
Nurkic over 14 points (W)
Suns +5.5 (W)
Bucks/Grizzlies Parlay (+154) (L)
PHO/DAL over 237 (L)
Record to this point:
Total 11-5 (1-3)
NBA 9-2 (0-1)
NHL 1-1 (0-1)
MLS 1-1 (1-1)
Futures in the mix:
Trail Blazers over 3.5 wins (+120) - 1 win, 6 games left
Trail Blazers 8-seed (+400) - 10th place, 2.5 games back of Memphis
Bucks under 6.5 wins (-250) - 1 win, 5 games left
Rangers Series Line (+110) - Down 1-0 to Carolina
Three NBA bets to start a new streak!
Fatigue is playing a serious role in the bubble. The Mavericks went ice cold in the second half, and their three-pointers weren't falling because of tired legs. The Lakers looked rough late against a fresh Raptors team. The Rockets were able to stick it to the Bucks late, but I think that comes down to motivation more than anything. Houston has something to gain, while the Bucks are pretty much locked in as the one seed.
Therefore, my bets are going to be based on exhaustion. Three teams are playing back to back days. I'm going to look at two of them.
We begin with the Spurs vs the 76ers. The Spurs played their hearts out against the Grizzlies and managed to hold off Memphis and narrow the gap between themselves and the eighth seed. However, they now have to take on a 76ers team that is only playing their second game while the Spurs are playing in their third in four days. The spread is a little too wide for my liking, and though the 76ers aren't the best defensive team in the NBA, I do expect the Spurs to miss a lot of open looks, especially late in the game. Give me the Spurs team under in a game they could feasibly still win.
BET: Spurs under 111.5
The Wizards are coming off a 118-110 loss to the Nets, and I have to think they're just about done. They have pretty much been eliminated from playoff contention and having to play immediately after such a realization seems like a disastrous situation. I can't believe that the Pacers aren't bigger favorites here.
BET: Pacers -6.5
For my third and final NBA bet, I'm going to look at the Jazz and Lakers. Even if you throw out the regular season stats (since the bubble is proving to be a different animal), the Lakers are still one of the best defenses in the NBA. They gave up 107 to the Raptors the other night, but that was a team on fresh legs attempting to prove they're contenders. Meanwhile, the Jazz offense has looked putrid, and both of their bubble games has seen them struggle to put the ball in the basket. Utah also likes to slow the game down, which makes me think the game under is in play. But the Lakers may try to right the ship after Saturday night, so I'm going to play the Jazz number here, though to be honest, I'm going to probably play the game under in real life.
BET: Jazz under 106.5
Back to the NHL!
I love the Penguins today. They were totally outplayed for the first period and a half, but then turned it on late in the second to even the game. Ultimately, they fell short, but I like them to get things back on track and enter into the win column against a team that I think they are much better than despite the final outcome.
BET: Pittsburgh Penguins ML -167
One last shot at the MLB
For a moment, we weren't even sure the MLB would be playing today. In honor of them coming back, I'm going to place a bet on a game and try to get myself in the win column on the website.
Jacob deGrom and Mike Soroka are going head to head, and I like both starters to continue their hot starts. The Mets and Braves combined for 21 runs in their first matchup, but have since cooled off, especially the Mets. DeGrom and Soroka have both looked good to start the season, each giving up two earned runs on two starts this season. I'm not going to trust either team's bullpen, but I trust both starters to get the job done.
ATL/NYM under 4.5 runs F5
And that does it for today's short edition of The Phive. If you like what you're seeing, be sure to tweet at me @Phil_Wood_Jr.