The Phive - 5 Daily Sports Bets (8/4)
After so many close calls that went the right way, we finally got a heartbreaker and, unfortunately, it came in the form of my best bet of the day. The Jazz came out on fire in the second quarter and despite a serious cold spell in the third, they were able to string enough pointless baskets together at the end of the game to push their total over. That sucked. Not a bad read. But it hurt. Short memory.
In worse news, Mike Soroka the young ace for the Braves blew out his Achilles and is going to miss the rest of the season. He wasn't sharp before that which meant the under 4.5 was likely to go over anyway, but you have to wonder if something was bothering him before the official injury. I feel bad for the guy. He's young and was starting for a serious postseason contender. Just a bummer of a day for so many reasons.
Here's where I stand as of now.
Pacers -6.5 (W)
Penguins ML (W)
Spurs under 111.5 (L)
ATL/NYM F5 under 4.5 (L)
Jazz under 106.5 (L)
Record to this point:
Total 13-8 (1-3)
NBA 10-4 (0-1)
NHL 2-1 (0-1)
MLS 1-1 (1-1)
Futures in the mix:
Trail Blazers over 3.5 wins (+120) - 1 win, 6 games left
Trail Blazers 8-seed (+400) - 9th place, 2 games back of Memphis
Bucks under 6.5 wins (-250) - 1 win, 5 games left
Rangers Series Line (+110) - Down 2-0 to Carolina
Today's bets have a few repeats, but in a world of sports where the same teams are taking each other on in five-game series or lines aren't moving despite great performances, it's hard to look away from promising numbers. Look, yesterday was the first losing day I've had since the restart, and that means it's time to go back to what's worked.
We will get an MLB win!
Unders burned me big time yesterday, yet I'm going back to the under one more time to see if I can make things right. Shane Bieber is getting his third start of the year and has 27 strikeouts in his first two games. Add to that, the Indians are on a four-game losing streak and have scored a grand total of six runs in their last six games. Tyler Mahle who will be starting for the Reds is no slouch. I like Cleveland to ride Bieber to a victory in a low scoring affair. I had said yesterday that if this number was as low as seven I would take the under. Luckily, it came in at 8.5, so how can I say no?
BET: CLE/CIN under 8.5
I'm so angry at the NBA.
The Jazz had no business going over in that game, and I'm not sure I will ever recover. But that doesn't mean I'm taking off from the NBA. After an unbelievably hot start, I'm still 10-4 in NBA bets. A very solid record. We get a couple of winners today and we're right back on track.
I'm going with two player props and one absolutely absurd spread.
Nurk is still so low!
You would think that the bookmakers would start catching on to the fact that Nurk is back. He's not just kind of back, he's completely back. He had 18 against the Grizzlies and 30 against Boston. Now, he's going against a Rocket frontcourt that he should be able to score against. This is going to be an insanely high-scoring game and I like Nurk to at least go for 20. Even if the Blazers fall behind, they essentially need this game and must do whatever they can to jump the Spurs for the ninth seed. Nurk is going to play plenty of minutes. He's played 32 and 33 in his previous two games. I would have taken this at 20. 17.5 seems like a dream.
BET: Jusuf Nurkic over 17.5
How about some love for the Celtics?
I'm looking at Jaylen Brown for this one. He's put up 30 and 22 and has looked really good in both games. His total is set at 19.5 right now and I don't think it's crazy to think he goes over that pretty easily against a Heat team playing for the second day in a row. I'm looking to ride some hot hands right now and not touch any NBA unders. As I said, they burned me big time yesterday. This doesn't mean I'm blindly picking overs. If you listened to "On The Card" yesterday, you'll know I hit the Chris Paul over in the third quarter. I'm just only going to look at overs for these bets as there aren't any under I really love.
BET: Jaylen Brown 0ver 19.5 points
This next line makes sense despite how ridiculous it is. The Nets have essentially said they are playing no one in today's game, and yet I have to play this on principle. The Bucks are favored by 18.5 points. This is absolutely absurd. Are the Bucks that much better than the Nets? Without a doubt. However, are the Bucks even going to bother playing anyone? Why try against a team that isn't trying when you have the one seed locked up. This number is huge. I have to take the dog.
BET: Nets +18.5
What about another NHL try?
Calgary and Winnipeg have been playing with fire in terms of the under at 5.5. Both of their games have gone for five goals exactly and I could see the very same thing happening again today. If you listened to "On The Card" (wow, two plugs), you'll know that this was one of two NHL bets I hit yesterday. Well, I'm going back to the well one more time. Why fix something that ain't broke? That's our motto here. On some books, the price isn't even inflated for the under. I can't not take this. I'll probably sweat it out like I did yesterday, but trends say this is going under. Who am I to argue with trends?
BET: CAL/WIN under 5.5
That's it for today's edition of The Phive. I'll be back tomorrow talking about my winning ways. Confidence. That's how you win. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr and for other bets check out "On The Card" on the TRHS YouTube channel.