The Phive - Free Daily Sports Bets (8/31)
Updated: Aug 31
Welcome to the last day of August. Who would have thought back in March that when the calendar was about to turn to September we'd be in the midst of the NHL, MLB, NBA, and even college football? I know I wasn't very certain. Yet here we are, and as the playoffs for the NBA and NHL wind down, things are only going to ramp up with football back across most of the country.
You know what else is ramping up? My record. I started this blog a month ago and my record is absolutely outstanding. Whether it be futures, series predictions, player props, or spreads, my overall record reflects one thing. Success. I hope you've all enjoyed reading, and more importantly, I hope you enjoyed making money.
Here's where we stand.
Closed Bets: Clippers (-530) (W)
Colorado Avalance -1.5 games (-106) (L)
Record to this point:
Total 73-51 (16-12)
NBA 32-24 (3-4)
MLB 10-7 (3-1)
NHL 28-15 (9-6)
MLS 3-4 (1-1)
Notable: 58-42 in first 100 bets
NHL Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 7-1
Colorado Avalanche (-215) - Stars lead 3-1
New York Islanders (+118)
Islanders -1.5 games (+200) - Islanders lead 3-1
Tampa Bay Lightning (-109)
Series over 5.5 games (-177) - Lightning lead 3-1
Vancouver Canucks (+220)
Canucks +1.5 games (+110) - Golden Knights lead 2-1
NBA Playoff Futures
Series Winners: 5-1
Nuggets (-278) - Series tied 3-3
Thunder 4-3 (+500) - Rockets lead 3-2
Toronto Raptors (-152)
BOS/TOR series over 5.5 games (-235) - Celtics lead 1-0
More NBA second round!
The Bucks and Heat get started tomorrow and this series could prove to be much closer than people expect. The Bucks have been relatively untested in the bubble and are the only team to advance in the Eastern Conference without sweeping their opponent. After losing game 1, Milwaukee rebounded and took care of the Magic in pretty boring fashion on their way to a 4-1 series win.
Meanwhile, the Heat looked fantastic in their opening-round series against the Pacers. Indiana was without Sabonis, but that doesn't take away from the fact that Miami dominated them in every game during the sweep. How will they do against a much better team?
Ultimately, I think they're going to fall short. The Bucks are starting to look like the best team in the NBA, and now that they have some meaningful games under their belt, I like them to take it to a deep Heat team that may struggle to keep up offensively with Giannis and company.
The real betting issue is I don't like the number for this series at all. The Bucks are currently sitting at -385, which is a really big number in a series that could go six. But I'm going to learn from my mistakes in round one and take the favorite because, in reality, I don't see a scenario where the Heat win four before the Bucks. Not unless there is some massive injury that changes the shape of the series as a whole.
BET: Milwaukee Bucks (-385)
For the series prop, I'm going to go with something that isn't quite the flashiest, but should produce a victory. While I think the Heat can cause problems for the Bucks in a game or two, I don't see them pushing this series to seven. Because of that, I'm going to go ahead and take the Bucks series spread, this way the Bucks can win it 4-0, 4-1, or 4-2 and we will still walk away winners.
BET: Bucks -1.5 (-195)
7 runs in 7 starts
Next, I'm going to jump over to Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Indians as they take on the Kansas City Royals. Bieber has given up seven runs in seven starts this season, an incredible stat. He previously faced the Royals back on opening day when he struck out 14 and gave up zero runs in six innings. I like him to continue to find success against the Royals, mainly because of how great he has been all season. I don't like any of the F5 bets for this game because Brad Keller is on the mound for the Royals and he either gives up lots of runs or no runs at all. His last start saw him get shelled, which makes me worried the Indians may jump out to a 5-0 lead in the first five innings. But they could also be tied at zero, so I'm staying away. What I am taking, however, is the Royals team under at a good price.
BET: Royals under 2.5 runs (+100)
I'm on absolute fire with hockey bets. In my last eight, I'm 7-1, which doesn't even include the series props that are likely to come my way shortly. Today, I'm going to take a bit of a chance. The Lightning are up 3-1 in the series and have looked like the better team since the third period of game 1. Yet, I'm going against them. The Bruins have a load of talent, and they have been here before. Last season, they made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, and while I don't think they get out of this series, I do think they play one desperate hockey game with their backs against the wall and pull out a victory over a team that could be taking them for granted in a clinching game.
BET: Boston Bruins (+102)
No headbutting... please!
On Saturday, I took the PJ Tucker over of 6.5. He comes out, scores five in the first half, and then early in the third quarter is ejected for headbutting. Russell Westbrook is back for the Rockets, which really proved to be a difference on Saturday, but I still like Tucker to get seven points in this game without issue... unless, of course, he decides to head-butt someone again. This was one of my favorite bets on Wednesday before the league shut down, and it was one of my favorite Saturday. I'm going to the well one more time because there is no reason he shouldn't easily clear this.
BET: PJ Tucker over 6.5 points (+105)
For my final bet, I'm going with another player prop since I don't really know what to think about this Thunder team, and I want to see how game 1 of the Bucks' series goes before betting it. I'm going to stick with Chris Paul. He still managed 16 in the loss Saturday, and that was with limited minutes since his team didn't score in the second half. I like him to never let this game get out of reach. The Rockets will likely win, but big-time players show up in big-time games. Chris Paul at 20.5 feels too good to be true.
BET: Chris Paul over 20.5 (-104)
That's all for today. I won't be recording an episode of "On The Card" tomorrow, but will be back with another edition of The Phive. If you have any questions, please reach out to me on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr. See you tomorrow.