Week 5 NFL / Week ? NCAAF Recap
Updated: Oct 28
Last week was a flat out bad week. Mike (the model-maker) and I unleashed our first week of paid subscriptions and wow, did we get off to a cold start. We went just 2-4 in NFL and 2-4 In NCAAF, and I have to say it was not the start that I was hoping for. The truth is no bettor is going to win every week. Sharps are only about 55%, but it still really, really sucks to have a bad first week when you're trying to convince people that your product is worth purchasing.
The one good thing that came out of all of this is that we actually went 12-6 on player props so it wasn't a totally lost week. While the player props were not advertised and will come and go as we see ones that we really like, they were a bright spot in an otherwise dark week. Therefore, I will say that while this week was so much worse than I wanted it to be, 16-14 as an overall record isn't the worst way to start, even if the prop bets were at smaller units.
If this is concerning you, and you're wondering why I'm even bothering to write this post, I want you to know that everyone who paid last week, and essentially wasted their money, will receive this week for free. That means that if you had signed up in Week 1 and weren't satisfied, you can try Week 2's picks for free. Obviously, those of you reading this who didn't sign up for Week 1 will not get the picks for free, since you didn't actually lose anything, but I just want you all to see that this isn't about making money for Mike and me. It's about creating a product that is worthwhile to others, and yes, for also making a little bit of money for all the hard work we're putting in. But if our picks suck, we're not here to keep taking your money and running away.
I said it last week, and I'll say it again: This is about us being transparent, admitting when we lose, and doing better to get some wins.
Here's a recap of last week's picks.
On the NFL side of things, we had the under in the Thursday night game between Chicago and Tampa. It was a great start and I was feeling hopeful. After that, it went to Hell. The Falcons are worse than advertised, the Eagles missed a field goal that would have ensured they at worst covered against Pittsburgh, the Indianapolis Colts looked horrible, and Justin Herbert is way better than I expected. At least we had Houston covering at -6.
Chicago/Tampa under 43.5
Falcons -1.5 (Matt Ryan int in the end zone... come on...)
Eagles +7 (This should have hit)
Indianapolis ML (Philip Rivers getting called for Intentional grounding down 7...)
NO/LAC under 51 (This one wasn't close)
For the NCAA things didn't start out so positively. We had Louisville covering, and they played one of the worst games I've seen them play since they were the worst team in the ACC (which they might be again). Florida failed to cover, and I really think having fans in the stands played a huge role in why Texas A&M was able to win. I hadn't taken that into account. Much like I didn't take into account that Florida's defense is awful. Mississippi State couldn't score any offensive points against a defense that was a coming off a 42-41 defeat. Finally, Texas Tech looked awful against Iowa State, but they came so close to a backdoor cover.
Our winners on the college side were Boston College +5 (they won outright) and the South Carolina and Vanderbilt over.
South Carolina/Vandy over 41.5
Texas Tech +12.5 (Alan Bowman sucked)
Florida -6.5 (The Gators defense is terrible)
Mississippi State ML (KJ Costello looks like he's back at Stanford)
Louisville -4.5 (Yikes...)
As you can see, the college football misses were much more egregious than the NFL misses. We're working hard to figure out where we went wrong and how we can get better. If you have any interest in signing up and trying out our system for one week, click this link. If we have another bad week, you'll get Week 3 for free, so what do you have to lose!