Week 7 NFL / NCAAF Recap
If you're not following along with my paid picks, you should be. On the college football side of things, we haven't been crushing it, but there is a strictly NFL side, and you should get in while the getting is good. Here is the link. I made it that easy for you!
Also, I'm Instagram now. BetOnPhil. Follow and tell your friends! We're making money here!
Excluding props, in our last 11 NFL picks (remember, I'm working with a guy who has created a model), we are 8-3 and up 10.73 units over the last two weeks. Including props, Week 7 saw us go 9-4 overall. This isn't just picking a team to win with a massive line, these are picks ATS and totals. We've also been nailing our props, which again, is why we're up a fantastic 10.73 units. If your units were 1=$100, you'd be up $1073 in the NFL. And all you'd have to be paying is $15 per week. I'd say that's a pretty good deal. Let's look at how we did in Week 7.
We started off right with the Giants an easy winner at +5. While the Giants should have won the game straight up, their epic collapse wasn't enough to spoil the easy spread play. The Eagles had no offensive weapons, which made this line seem simply irrational. In that same game we projected Greg Ward to go over 3.5 receptions and Carson Wentz to have more than 34.5 passing attempts. Check and check.
On Sunday, we nailed the Packers, the Panthers, and the over in the Jaguars and Chargers game. Our two losses were the Bills -10 and the Titans -1.5. Both of those bets were very much in play, and one could argue that we should have hit both of them. Buffalo scored six times in the game and needed just one touchdown to cover. I'd take that bet any day of the week. As for the Titans, get yourselves a kicker who can kick.
Giants +5 W
Packers -3.5 W
LAC/JAC over 49.5 W
Panthers +7.5 W
Bills -10 L
Titans -1.5 L
Greg Ward over 3.5 receptions W
Carson Wentz over 34.5 attempts W
Hunter Renfrow over 3.5 receptions (+126) W
Russell Wilson over 24.5 rushing yards W
Nick Foles over 22.5 completions W
Derrick Henry over 84.5 rushing yards L
Ward longest reception 16.5+ L
While the NFL side of things has been very exciting, the NCAA side of things has been incredibly bland. We keep going .500 on plays, which isn't bad, but is frustrating because we want success across the board. Whether the model is just having a harder time catching up with NCAA (there are way more teams) or I'm just picking the wrong games, we're trying to figure out how to perfect this. That being said, going .500 on bad weeks isn't the worst thing, especially when you're crushing it on NFL plays.
Houston -14 W
Boston College -3.5 W
Alabama -21 W
Illinois +19.5 (three missed field goals, numerous red zone opportunities with 0 points) L
South Carolina +6.5 (whoops) L
Ole Miss +3 (the most frustrating loss of the year) L
Bo Nix over 221.5 passing yards W
D'Eriq King over 46.5 rushing yards L
Cam'Ron Harris over 50.5 rushing yards L
That's all for this week! Check out the link above, and follow me on Instagram BetOnPhil and on Twitter @Phil_Wood_Jr.